KANSAS CITY — It was the biggest game of the Miami Dolphins’ reconstruction and the Mike McDaniel-Tua Tagovailoa era.
And the Dolphins flopped, losing 26-7.
Everything was on the line in this AFC wild-card playoff game between the Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs at freezing Arrowhead Stadium. And, yes, Taylor Swift was in attendance to see her boyfriend, Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce.
This was an ugly way to end a once-promising season.
The Dolphins’ 8-3 start turned into an 11-6 regular-season finish. They still had a chance to salvage big value from the season with a playoff win. It didn’t happen.
Here are some more takeaways from Saturday night:
Dolphins in cold weather
The official temperature at kickoff was minus-4 degrees with a wind chill of minus-27.
This was the fourth-coldest game in NFL history. The so-called “Ice Bowl” between Green Bay and Dallas on Dec. 31, 1967, remains the coldest game.
This was the coldest game in Dolphins history, replacing the Dec. 21, 2008 game at Kansas City that had a temperature of 10 degrees at kickoff.
The air temperature dipped to 7-below zero at halftime Saturday. The temperature when the game ended was minus-8 with a wind chill of minus-28.
Miami entered the game losing their past 10 games when the temperature at kickoff was 40 degrees or below. — Chris Perkins
The swirling wind
The breeze at Arrowhead Stadium was primarily coming from the northwest but it was swirling inside the stadium. The swirling wind might have been partly responsible for Dolphins punter Jake Bailey booting a 28-yard punt in the first quarter.
The flags atop the uprights could be seen blowing west one minute and then suddenly switch to blowing east in a matter of seconds. If your pass or kick happened to be going into the wind at that exact moment, it could have created havoc.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw a deep first-quarter incompletion for Mecole Hardeman that might have got caught up in the wind.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw a 53-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill in the second quarter that seemed to get caught up in the 14-mile per hour wind, which was gusting up to 28 mph.
Tailgating in frigid conditions
Kansas City fans did tailgate before the game. The scene resembled a lake full of ice fishermen. Fans had square tents, and many had generators and heaters. Very few people were simply sitting in the parking lot unprotected from the elements, but a small number of hearty souls were out there in the cold and wind.
Dolphins pass rush struggles
Miami, which was missing six defensive starters from earlier in the season, struggled to pressure Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Miami, which entered the game No. 3 in sacks at 56, ended with no sacks and just five quarterback hits.
A few times Mahomes had more than four seconds to throw. The Dolphins were without edge rushers Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) and Bradley Chubb (knee), linebacker Jerome Baker (arm), cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) and safety Jevon Holland (knees).
Late in the second quarter the Dolphins had no sacks and one quarterback hit.
Mahomes used the time to spot open receivers and pepper the Miami defense with accurate passes.
Dolphins struggle running the ball
The Dolphins, who entered the game No. 6 in the NFL at 135.8 yards per game, didn’t gain any meaningful traction in the run game Saturday.
The Dolphins, who had 49 yards rushing on 11 carries in the first half, ended up rushing for 76 yards on 18 carries. Running back Raheem Mostert ended with 33 yards on eight carries.
Kansas City seemingly had an answer for almost every running play.
The Dolphins have had decent rushing totals in losses this season.
The Dolphins had 154 yards rushing in their 56-19 loss at Baltimore. Miami rushed for 142 yards in its 48-20 loss at Buffalo. The Dolphins had 117 yards rushing in their 21-14 loss to Kansas City in Germany. Miami had 158 yards rushing in its 28-27 loss to Tennessee.
Tua’s playoff debut
Tagovailoa had a forgettable playoff debut.
He ended 20 of 39 for 199 yards, one interception, one touchdown and a 63.9 passer rating.
Tagovailoa threw a first-quarter interception to safety Mike Edwards. But he bounced back for a 53-yard touchdown pass to Hill in the second quarter.
Tagovailoa appeared to spot Hill too late on a fourth-and-1 pass incompletion from Miami’s 44-yard line later in the second quarter.
Tagovailoa was injured (concussion) for last year’s 34-31 wild-card round loss at Buffalo.
Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards (4,624), ranked No. 5 in passer rating (101.1) and had career highs in touchdown passes (29) and interceptions (14).
Slowing down Mahomes wasn’t effective
Kansas City quarterback shredded the Dolphins secondary, ending 23 of 41 for 262 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and a 83.6 passer rating.
Mahomes crushed the Dolphins with his arm and feet.
Mahomes had a 28-yard scramble on fourth-and-4 from the Chiefs’ 38-yard line.
Mahomes had a 39-yard completion to wide receiver Rashee Rice (eight receptions, 130 yards, one touchdown) on third-and-10 from the Chiefs’ 44-yard line.
Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio seemed to blitz more than usual in an attempt to disrupt Mahomes. It didn’t work.
The Dolphins entered the game ranked 27th in blitz frequency at 21.5%.
Dolphins’ big plays surface once, and only once
The Dolphins, who have been ineffective scoring offensive touchdowns for a while, needed big plays on both sides of the ball to secure a victory Saturday. It didn’t happen aside from the 53-yard touchdown pass from Tagovailoa to Hill.
Defensively, Miami couldn’t generate a pass rush or a turnover.
Offensively, Miami couldn’t find anything that worked on the ground or through the air.
As an example of the offensive issues consider that Miami didn’t get its first third-down conversion until about 10 minutes remained in the game. The Dolphins were 0 for 7 previously and ended 1 of 12 on third downs.
The Chiefs, who have a stingy defense, entered the game ranked No. 2 in total defense (289.8 yards allowed per game) and No. 4 against the pass (176.5 ypg). The Chiefs were tied for 17th against the run (113.2 ypg).
Tyreek not very good in his Chiefs rematch
Hill wasn’t effective against his former team, and now that makes two times the Chiefs have limited their former player.
Hill ended with five receptions for 62 yards and one touchdown.
Hill’s highlight was the 53-yard touchdown reception in the second quarter in which he slowed down and backtracked a bit to catch a pass that might have been caught in the wind.
Hill had eight receptions for 62 yards when these teams played on Nov. 5. He also was infamously stripped of the ball after a reception, lost the fumble and saw it returned for a touchdown.
Hill led the league in receiving yards this season (1,799) and tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (13).
Dolphins end with losing road record
The Dolphins end with a 4-5 road record. They were 0-5 on the road against teams that finished with winning records, losing to Buffalo, Philadelphia, Kansas City (in Germany), Baltimore and Kansas City (in Kansas City).
The Dolphins’ road wins came against the Los Angeles Chargers, who finished 5-12, New England (4-13), New York Jets (7-10) and Washington Commanders (4-13).
As an aside, the Dolphins fell to 3-13 all-time in road playoff games.
The three truisms that Tua Tagovailoa must improve upon in 2024
1. In temperatures of 45 degrees or under, Tagovailoa fell to 0-7 with these stats: 135-243, 1,670, 8 TD, 10 INT, 70.8 passer rating, 7 fumbles.
2. In the 16 games Tua Tagovailoa has played in when the Dolphins have been on a national broadcast, his passer rating has been 84.1. The stats: 295-465 for 3,352 yards with 15 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, plus nine fumbles. He has gone 4-10 in those games with two no-decisions.
3. Against teams with at least 10 wins, the Dolphins starting QB fell to 6-15 with these stats: 400-673, 4,344 yards, 26 TD passes, 19 INT, 79.6 passer rating, 10 fumbles and 16.5 net offensive points per game. — Steve Svekis
Dolphins continued to get gouged by running QBs in key spots
On a fourth-and-5 in the first half, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes slipped past the line of scrimmage and scooted 28 yards to give Kansas City a first-and-goal at the 10. A later 13-yarder represented the ninth scamper by an opposing quarterback or at least 10 yards in the past four games. The Dolphins escaped the Cowboys, but then lost the final three games of the season, with those runs absolute killers in key situations.
Dolphins made one significant accomplishment in the freeze
In the Super Bowl era, there now have been five playoff games played where the temperature at kickoff was below zero, In the previous four, the visiting team had averaged 3.5 fumbles per game (14 fumbles). The Dolphins’ ball carriers never lost control of the pigskin.
Is it possible Tua Tagovailoa’s arm was fatigued?
In the 2023 season, Tagovailoa threw 599 passes, 49.8% more than his previous high (400 in 2022). Here are the number of passes thrown by the Dolphins quarterback in each of the past six seasons: 2018: 355; 2019: 252; 2020: 290; 2021: 388; 2022: 400; 2023: 599.
Tagovailoa’s sack splits suffered after the first third of the season
In Tagovailoa’s first 218 dropbacks, he was sacked 6 times (36.3 dropbacks per sack). In his last 412 dropbacks, he was sacked 25 times (16.5 dropbacks per sack).
